general info about Theriologia Ukrainica

Theriologia Ukrainica

ISSN 2616-7379 (print) • ISSN 2617-1120 (online)

2020 • Vol. 20 • Contents of volume >>>

download pdfKolomytsev, G., V. Prydatko-Dolin. 2020. Red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) habitats change modelling in Eastern Europe in the scope of climate change according to new generation scenarios (SSPs) by 2100. Theriologia Ukrainica, 20: 105–126.



Red Squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) habitats change modelling in Eastern Europe in the scope of the climate change according to new generation scenarios (SSPs) by 2100


Grygoriy Kolomytsev, Vasyl Prydatko-Dolin


I. I. Schmalhausen Institute of Zoology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (Kyiv, Ukraine), Ukrainian Nature Conservation Group, Ukrainian Land and Resource Management Center (Kyiv, Ukraine), ULRMC Biotic GIS Group (BioModel)


Theriologia Ukrainica. 2020. Vol. 20: 105–126.




Ukrainian, with English summary, titles of tables, captures to figs


In Ukraine during 2008–2010, the first SDM matched the red squirrel (S. vulgaris) based on GLM-by-2050, and which covered EE, was developed and used by ULRMC (Kyiv). Our new study reveals further development of the analysis by using relevant IPCC c.c. scenarios. We took into account materials on S. vulgaris (and S. anomalus) distribution, as well as associated species, and the WorldClim maps and current bioclimatic variables, and its projections for four scenarios which combined SSPs & RCPs by 2100. The simulations of scenario SSP1 & RCP2.6 associated with an av. temp. increase of 1.5 °C show that c.c. could cause the loss of 12 % of suitable habitats of the species in E E and 49 % in Ukraine. The simulations for SSP2 & RCP4.5 (with av. temp. increase of 1.8 °C) demonstrates, respectively, a potential loss of 14 % and 57 % of suitable habitats. Simulations of SSP3 & RCP7.0 and SSP5 & RCP8.5 scenario (with av. temp increase of >> 2 °C) shows a loss of 30 % and 41 % of suitable habitats within E E, and more than 90 % in Ukraine. Since each percent of such changes provokes enormous losses in ecosystems and biodiversity, we emphasize the current need for countries to aim and achieve the most ambitious c. c. commitments to stabilize the increase of temperature, i.e. within 1.5 °C. Our comparison platform included also SDMs of trees (oak, beech, spruce, pine, linden, and birch — Quercus robur, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, Pinus silvestris, Tilia cordata, Betula spp.), as well as SDM for the marten (Martes martes), for all of which we had already developed GLM-by-2050. Consequently, the new projections demonstrated that all habitats of the red squirrel and associated species are expected to shift mostly ‘to the north’ by 2100, and their localities in the Caucasus Mountain might be fragmented. Most likely, in nature, this complicated displacement will happen not in the form of direct migration of individuals ‘to the north’, but through active synanthropization of the red squirrel. How durable and satisfactory this mechanism is for natural selection remains a mystery. The territories from which S. v. ukrainicus (Mygulin, 1928) was described have changed significantly: the respective landscape ecosystem losses have reached up to 50 % and more. By 2100, significant habitat changes are likely to be also demonstrated by beech and birch.


Eurasian red squirrel, Sciurus vulgaris, SDM, WorldClim, SSP, RCP, Ukraine, Eastern Europe.



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